Party’s Over: Trudeau Resigns as Leader of the Liberal Party

With Parliament prorogued until March 24th, the LPC will look to elect a new leader in a “robust, nationwide, competitive process”. 

Trudeau Resigns 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced today that he will step down as Leader of the Liberal Party, after a “robust, national, competitive leadership race.” He also announced that the Governor General has granted his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24, 2025.  

This widely anticipated decision comes after his Liberal government has trailed the Conservatives by double digits in the polls for over 18 months, high-profile by-election losses in previous Liberal strongholds, regional caucus revolts, and a scathing letter denouncing his leadership by former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland. 

Mr. Trudeau has announced that he will stay on as Prime Minister until a new Liberal leader is selected – likely before Parliament returns. A Liberal leadership race will begin shortly. The Liberal Party of Canada’s (LPC) National Board will decide on the parameters of the leadership race and the LPC is briefing the Liberal caucus on the LPC constitution today.   

Here’s what you need to know: 

Prorogation of Parliament 

Parliament was scheduled to return on January 27, 2025, but with today’s prorogation announcement, Parliament will now return on March 24, 2025, in advance of a required vote to allocate supply to fund government operations past the fiscal year end of March 31.  

Prorogation terminates the parliamentary session, which means that neither the House nor the Senate sits, no committees are convened (though they can continue to function informally, issuing reports or conducting reviews or inquiries), all business “dies” on the order paper, and all Bills that have not received royal assent are entirely terminated.  

Once the House returns after prorogation, the government will need to deliver a Throne speech, which usually details the government’s vision for the country. However, this may not pass given the opposition parties’ collective desire to vote non-confidence in the Government and send Canadians to the polls in the spring.  

Functioning of Cabinet 

Legally, Cabinet continues to function during prorogation. Cabinet has far reaching powers to pass regulations, take trade actions, make appointments, and spend previously authorized funds.  

We are likely to see another cabinet shuffle, as contenders for the Liberal leadership resign their Cabinet posts to focus on their leadership campaigns.  

Controversial regulatory packages are likely to stall out, as Ministries wait for political direction from the incoming Liberal leader.  

Expect Cabinet to focus on routine matters of national housekeeping, national security, and response to US trade actions. While not in official “caretaker” mode, this cabinet will have a narrowed political mandate while the Liberal leadership unfolds.  

The Incoming Trump Administration 

President Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, when Parliament is prorogued.  Trump has routinely demanded stronger border security from Canada and has threatened to place tariffs on goods imported to the States.  With a vacuum of leadership at the federal level, provinces have stepped up to fill this gap.  

Given that Cabinet continues to function regardless of a leadership process, Cabinet can act in response to potential tariffs that occur after January 20, including via Orders in Council, new appointments, and trade actions in response to a potential economic conflict with the US. 

Liberal Leadership Rules 

In his resignation address, Trudeau called for the LPC to convene a robust, nationwide, and competitive process for the next leader of the party. There is a significant time constraint because of the return of Parliament on March 24. The proposed rules will unfold over the coming days on this shortened process and will likely require the LPC Board to first propose a change to the LPC constitution, which will need to be ratified by LPC members, likely via an online AGM.  

Possible Liberal Leadership Contenders 

Likely In 

Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister – Freeland has the highest profile of any leadership contender, due in part to her fiery resignation and critique of the outgoing Prime Minister. She maintains a significant international network of business leaders, media, and politicians, and assisted in negotiating the first iteration of the Canada- US- Mexico Agreement.  

Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of Canada and England – Carney has been building his profile through recent international events and through media commentary. Carney was recently tapped by Trudeau to serve as the Chair of the Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth.  

Christy Clark, former Premier of British Columbia – Clark has been in this position before. In 2011 she took the reins of a deeply unpopular party and fought back from a 20+ point deficit in the polls to defeat the BCNDP in the 2013 BC election campaign.  She is one of the strongest political organizers in Canada and likely to be a strong contender for the job.  

On the Bubble 

Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance – Long labelled as the Government’s “janitor” for cleaning up contentious files, LeBlanc has experience across several high-profile ministries. Given his pivotal role in Canada/US relations and as acting Finance Minister, it would be difficult for Cabinet to adapt to his absence if he decides to run for the Liberal leadership.  

Francois Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry – Champagne has a strong profile with numerous business leaders, industry executives, and media across the country. He has a strong aptitude for retail politics and has focused on business investment in Canada at a time of stalling economic progress.  

Melanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs – Joly has sought to build her public profile and a base in Montreal for a possible run. She has built alliances with Canada’s Muslim community over her stance on the war in the Middle East.   

Weighing their Options 

Anita Anand, Minister of Transportation and Internal Trade– Anand has been a capable utility player for the Trudeau Cabinet for several iterations and has been rumored to harbour greater ambitions. 

Karina Gould, Government House Leader – Gould has been an effective spokesperson for the government and her name has circulated as a possible entry to the race. Gould is the youngest woman to serve as a Cabinet minister in Canadian history, holding four different posts since 2017.  

Marc Miller, Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Refugees – Miller is a close confidante of Trudeau and has been recognized for his able management of several contentious Cabinet posts. He is an aggressive and outspoke critic of Pierre Poilievre. Rumours have circulated that he may be interested in the top job. 

Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources – Wilkinson has intimated to caucus members that he is seriously considering entering the Liberal leadership race. He views much of the work he has done to advance clean energy transition as a key component of the Liberal government’s legacy and he would view his leadership as fundamental in preserving it as foundational to future Liberal campaign platforms. 

Dark Horse Candidates 

Perry Bellegarde, former National Chief of the Assembly of First Nations – Bellegarde is recognized as one of Canada’s top First Nations leaders and worked closely with the Trudeau government to advance reconciliation. His name has circulated at a time with the LPC is ripe for takeover from an outsider. 

Mark Critch, Comedian – One of the most recognizable faces in Canadian media, Critch has been whispered about as a dark horse candidate for a Liberal leadership. His high public profile, likability and outsider status could put him in a second tier of contenders if he decides to run. That tier could also include entrepreneur and former Liberal MP for the riding of Pierrefonds-Dollard, Frank Baylis. 

Election Implications 

The Conservatives have long been calling for a “Carbon Tax” election and have more recently asserted that Canadians deserve an immediate election rather than a prorogued Parliament. The Conservatives have already started their attacks on high-profile Liberal candidates, especially Mark Carney, and will continue to link all Liberal candidates back to Trudeau in the hope that, with Trudeau staying on as Prime Minister, Liberal candidates will find it hard to escape Trudeau’s shadow and divisive legacy.   

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced his intention to vote down the Government on the Throne Speech.  The NDP has also stated that they oppose prorogation, especially as the country faces down the incoming Trump administration, the ongoing affordability crisis, and concerns about the governance of the country. In a statement, NDP Leader Singh stated that the problem is not Justin Trudeau, but every minister that was involved in the government is part of the problem and that the LPC does not deserve another chance.   

The Liberal government therefore faces a loss of confidence as soon as Parliament returns.  Given this dynamic, the new Prime Minister would likely call the election in advance to establish the narrative on their own terms, setting the stage for a late April/early May election.