With the risk of stating the obvious, the decision last week by BC United Leader Kevin Falcon to suspend his party’s campaign has changed the entire complexion of the upcoming provincial election.
You can throw any pre-election analysis done before last week out of the window.
Now that Falcon has folded up his campaign tent, the election is deadlocked with the BC NDP and BC Conservatives having virtually an equal chance of forming government on October 19.
Two public domain polls released late last week, one with Pallas Data with the BC NDP up by a single point (44% BC NDP to 43% BC Conservatives), and another from Angus Reid with the BC Conservatives up a single point (44% BC Conservatives to 43% BC NDP) reflect the fact that the election is now a dead heat.
Over the weekend, BC Conservative organizers picked over the carcass of BC United, taking who they see as more electable candidates and dumping those from their ranks that were deemed to be problematic or simply not as electable.
We have already seen significant changes as they put the finishing touches on their final 93-candidate slate.
Meanwhile, the BC NDP has adjusted its messages to appeal to disaffected BC United supporters, but also received news of an unexpected setback in its candidate nomination process.
Already facing significant challenges, the BC Green Party risks getting squeezed out by strategic centre-left voters who may vote BC NDP to stop the BC Conservatives.
With that in mind, here is the state of play after the Labour Day Weekend.
BC Conservatives dumping candidates
Before last week, political observers such as veteran political reporter Keith Baldrey identified the extreme views of some BC Conservative candidates as the party’s soft underbelly.
Armed with a 200-page document that BC United’s opposition research team had created outlining significant issues with some of these candidates, the BC Conservatives spent the weekend getting rid of some of them.
Here are some of the changes;
- Prince-George Mackenzie candidate Rachel Weber, who said that 5G cell towers are “genocidal weapons” and the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been replaced by Kiel Giddens, formerly the BC United standard bearer.
- Trevor Halford, BC United incumbent, is now running for Conservatives in Surrey White Rock.
- Bryan Teper, formerly the BC Conservative candidate in Surrey White Rock, is now running in Surrey-Panorama with Dupinder Kaur Saran being shown the door.
- Ian Paton, veteran BC United MLA in Delta South, is now seeking re-election for the BC Conservatives.
- Peter Milobar, veteran BC United MLA, is running for the Conservatives in Kamloops Centre, replacing Dennis Giesbrecht who is now running in Vernon-Lumby.
- Scott McInnis, former BC United candidate, is now running under the BC Conservative banner in Columbia River-Revelstoke, replacing AJ Wolfe.
- Micheal Lu, former BC United candidate in Burnaby North, replacing BC Conservative Simon Chandler.
- Dale Parker, formerly the BC United candidate, is running for the Conservatives in Nanaimo-Gabriola Island, replacing Viraat Thammanna.
- Former BC United candidate Keenan Adams is now running for the BC Conservatives in Port Coquitlam, where they had not nominated candidate.
Not surprisingly, these changes have been far from bump-free.
BC United incumbent MLAs with decades of public service such as Shirley Bond, Todd Stone and Jackie Tegart, all potential candidates the BC Conservatives did not want, have seen their careers end.
In addition, one star candidate for the United Party, Dr. Claudine Storness-Bliss who had been nominated in Surrey Cloverdale, has said she would not accept an offer to run for the Conservatives and has folded her tent altogether.
Others are vowing to fight on.
Peace River MLA Mike Bernier, who made a forestry policy announcement 24 hours with Falcon before the tumultuous events on Tuesday, is running as an independent.
Dupinder Kaur Saran, formerly the BC Conservative candidate in Surrey-Panorama, is also opting to run without a party banner.
Meanwhile candidates who were dumped by their respective parties in the Okanagan have floated the idea of forming an alliance and getting their names on the ballot, although no one has stepped forward.
While this is unlikely to have any real impact on the BC Conservatives’ fortunes on election day, we have all received a front-row seat to witness how brutal politics can be.
BC NDP opportunity and setback
With the departure of BC United, Premier David Eby and his campaign organizers have shifted their political messaging to appeal to the BC United supporters who are not comfortable with the BC Conservatives and demonstrated that discomfort by sticking with the party to the end.
While they received some good news when former BC Liberal Health Minister Terry Lake said he might vote for Eby to stop Rustad, the BC NDP received some unwelcome news as well.
Before the weekend, the BC NDP had all but completed its candidate nomination process with a solid late and only a few holes left in seven unwinnable constituencies that will be filled well before the Elections BC deadline.
That changed when Esquimalt-Calwood MLA and cabinet minister Mitzi Dean announced she will not be running for re-election, after suggesting otherwise only days before.
If Dean had run again, this would have been a safe seat for the New Democrats. That now somewhat changes. Although they are likely to be able to recruit a strong candidate, the BC NDP will have to put much more effort to win this local campaign than they would have otherwise.
We are closely monitoring the campaign and how it affects you
While the electoral situation is volatile, Counsel Public Affairs remains well positioned to serve your needs before and after October 19.
As a multi-partisan firm, we have strong lines of sight into the Conservative and New Democratic parties and are ready to provide advice and guidance throughout 2024 and beyond.
If you have any questions about how this affects your organization specifically, please feel free to reach out to us. This is an unprecedented election scenario.