What to Watch for in the Most Competitive Saskatchewan Election in a Generation

Counsel to offer ongoing insights and analysis 

Next month’s provincial election in Saskatchewan is shaping up to be the most competitive campaign in a generation.  

The Saskatchewan Party has governed the province since 2007 and cruised to huge re-election majorities in 2011, 2016, and 2020. In fact, their 30-point margins of victory over the NDP in these previous Saskatchewan elections was unprecedented in Canadian politics.  

But fast forward to 2024. 

Two recent public opinion polls now show both parties jockeying for the lead (ANGUS REID, August: SP 49% – NDP 42%; INSIGHTRIX, July: NDP 48% – SP 47%). Taken together, these numbers average very near the margin of error, a term we are now all familiar with from the current U.S. presidential election. 

But even more important than the provincial horse race numbers, both polls showed a stark urban/rural political divide between NDP-leaning Regina and Saskatoon, and rural Saskatchewan, which has traditionally been the bedrock of Saskatchewan Party support.  

So, the stage is nearly set for the Saskatchewan election which is set to take place on October 28th. Here’s what Counsel will be watching for in this campaign:  

1. The Battle between making this “a Status Quo” vs. “a Change” Election: Will Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party convince enough voters to be re-elected again as continued stewards of Saskatchewan’s resource-focused economy, or will the NDP, under new leader Carla Beck, capitalize on what a growing desire for change – focused on improvements for healthcare and K-12 education? 
2. Will the NDP be able to extend their recent growth in support in the cities to the province’s smaller urban centres where they need to pick up seats to win?
3. Will the new Saskatchewan United Party – a rural, right-wing, populist party, borne out of protest to Covid-19 measures – have an impact on the tone or outcome of the campaign?
4. What will be the impact, if any, of the record 22 Saskatchewan Party MLAs who are not seeking re-election?
5. And most important, what impact will all of this have on future governance and public policy in Saskatchewan? 

From the writ drop to election day, to the swearing-in of a new cabinet and an expected fall sitting of the provincial legislature, Counsel Public Affairs has the Saskatchewan election covered for you.  

Join us for a behind-the-headlines look at major campaign events, platform commitments, insights and weekly analysis by subscribing to Counsel’s insights. 

If you have questions about how the outcome of the Saskatchewan election could potentially impact your sector, business, or organization, please reach out to the Saskatchewan Counsel Public Affairs team: