Notley’s NDP Open up Lead in Calgary, UCP Maintains Strength in Rural Alberta as Campaign Enters Second Half
May 16, 2023 – In the lead up to the May 29 Alberta election, Counsel Public Affairs has been actively measuring the opinions, attitudes, and voting intentions of Alberta residents since March of this year.
Counsel’s most recent survey was conducted from Friday, May 12 through Sunday, May 14 and had a sample size of 1,219 respondents.
Key Findings:
- The Alberta NDP has opened a sizable lead with 36% support to the UCP’s 29% with 22% undecided.
- Among decided voters, the NDP leads the UCP 48% to 38%.
- Undecided voters are splitting almost evenly between the two front-running parties when asked how they are intending/leaning to vote (17% are leaning UCP, while 16% are leaning NDP).
- The Alberta NDP is leading in Edmonton with 44% support compared to 23% for the UCP.
- The Alberta NDP is leading in Calgary with 38% compared to 28% for the UCP.
- The UCP continues to draw its strength from seat-rich rural Alberta, leading the Alberta NDP by 15 points.
- Province-wide, the number of undecided voters is down from 24% in March to 22% on May 14. Undecided voters in Calgary are down from 27% in March to just 18%.
Demographic Highlights:
- Men 55+ continue to be the greatest source of support for the UCP, with 45% support while women between the ages of 35-54 remain a strong source of support for the Alberta NDP, with 41% support.
- Undecided voters among women aged 18-34 have moved significantly towards the Alberta NDP. Undecided voters are down from 34% in March to 23% while the NDP lead over the UCP has grown to 21% (39% to 18%).
- Women 55+ are breaking toward the Alberta NDP with a 10-point jump in support from 26% support in March to 36% support in May.
Methodology for March 21 – March 27, 2023 Survey
911 Alberta residents were surveyed between March 21 – March 27, 2023. Counsel Public Affairs uses the Lucid Exchange Platform as the sample provider, which blends a variety of partner panels. If the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty. Results are weighted for age, gender, and region according to the most recent census.
Methodology for March 28 – April 3, 2023 Survey
933 Alberta residents were surveyed between March 28 – April 3, 2023. Counsel Public Affairs uses the Lucid Exchange Platform as the sample provider, which blends a variety of partner panels. If the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty. Results are weighted for age, gender, and region according to the most recent census.
Methodology for May 12 – 14, 2023 Survey
1,219 Alberta residents were surveyed between May 12 – May 14, 2023. Counsel Public Affairs uses the Lucid Exchange Platform as the sample provider, which blends a variety of partner panels. If the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty. Results are weighted for age, gender, and region according to the most recent census.