BC Election: Opening Salvos & 5 Key Questions

A year ago – or even six weeks ago – David Eby and the New Democrats had a relatively easy path to re-election.  Even with the meteoric rise in popularity of John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, the BC NDP held good chances against two right of centre parties. However, that easy path evaporated when BC United Party Leader, Kevin Falcon, announced his party would not contest the October 19th election.

Now the BC campaign promises to be much closer than anyone predicted, with both Eby and Rustad locked in an intense two-party battle to win the hearts and minds of British Columbians.

From the backrooms to the front doorsteps, Counsel – and our multi-partisan team of public affairs specialists – has you covered.

Opening Salvos: The First Few Days 

Premier Eby kicked off his campaign on Friday at an event in Surrey, framing the election as “a stark choice between two very different plans for the future, between a commitment to take real action to help British Columbians and John Rustad’s 20-year record of costing people more and cutting the things that matter to families.” Eby was joined by supporters and candidates to announce the start to the election.

The next day, Rustad chose Vancouver’s Downtown East Side CRAB Park, with both the picturesque north shore mountains and a homeless encampment in the background, to highlight the issues of homelessness and toxic drugs saying, “B.C. is at a crossroads … the question is, are we going to fight for a future, or are we going to continue to manage decline.” Rustad was joined by a handful of reporters and his wife, who stood by his side.

Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau, began her campaign in Victoria, where she is in a tough battle to take a traditionally safe seat from the NDP in Victoria Beacon-Hill, facing incumbent Grace Lore.

Over the weekend, Eby announced a housing proposal that would see 2600 first-time home buyers purchase a home through an initiative with the Musqueam, Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh First Nations and delivered in partnership with the province. The initiative would allow for 99-year strata leasehold homes to be initially purchased and finance middle-income earners at below-market prices.

Not to be outdone creating news on a Sunday, Rustad committed to shut down all supervised drug consumption sites and replace them with mental health and addictions treatment centres, helping to form the basis for the Conservatives public safety platform.

However, the first real campaign controversy came quickly. Rustad likely expected to win the day with when he announced the “Rustad Rebate,” a plan to let British Columbians deduct up to $3000 per month for mortgage and rent payments from their income tax. But the media and public sentiment was more focused on statements he made during a July online meeting of the BC Public Service Employees for Freedom in which he claims to regret getting the “so-called vaccine” against COVID-19, saying that vaccine mandates weren’t so much about stopping the spread of the disease as they were about “shaping opinion and control of the population.” Premier Eby responded almost immediately, detailing that Rustad’s position is good to know, as he “says one thing in a meeting when he thinks it won’t get out… then he says another in public.”

This eventful day followed a week of political jockeying and reveals from Eby on two critical issues for his supporters and undecided. First, he announced if the Government of Canada removed the backstop for carbon pricing, the BC NDP would follow suit. Second, he stated his government would allow for involuntary care for persons struggling with mental health and addictions, a policy he initially supported, then abandoned during his run for premier in 2022. Eby’s adoption of these two policies shows he wants to capture more of the centrist voters without a political home from the dissolution of the BC United Party, potentially, at risk of alienating more key supporters from his camp.

Counsel’s 5 Campaign Questions 

• Can John Rustad and the BC Conservatives turn what appears to be a modest desire for change into votes in the ballot box, or will the NDP successfully brand them as being too risky a choice?
• Can Eby and the NDP make the case they have made enough progress on the big files – affordability, housing, health care, crime and public safety – to deserve a third term in office? Many of these issues were highlighted in a recent Counsel public opinion survey conducted for the BC Chamber of Commerce that found one-in-five former NDP voters were reconsidering their vote.
• Can the BC Conservatives mount an effective campaign? Successful election campaigns are often months in the planning, executed by a well-funded team of experienced, collegial staff. The Conservatives have just recently recruited their candidates and staff; both promising, but still unproven.
• How will both first-time party leaders perform in a televised debate? This will occur on October 8th, an event that has been pivotal in past BC elections.
• What impact will the five former BC United MLAs, now running as independent candidates, have on the election day? History hasn’t been kind to independent candidates, but they usually aren’t sitting MLAs!

Throughout the campaign, Counsel will be bringing you a slate of campaign updates, news, ridings to watch, and opinion polling to keep you up to date on the election. Our multipartisan team will be tuned in to provide analysis on how this race will impact future governance, public policy, and the lives of British Columbians.

Stay tuned. It’s going to be a fascinating campaign.