Ontario Election: Insights from Doug Ford’s Historic Three-Peat

Doug Ford’s Secure Third Term: Key Insights  

Doug Ford safely secured a historic third majority yesterday, placing him in a very small club of Canadian politicians to achieve this feat and the first Ontario premier to do so since the 1950’s.  

The new Ontario Legislature will look different in a few ways. Ford’s PC majority is one seat larger than it was before the dissolution of the Legislature but three fewer than he won in the 2022 election. The Ontario NDP seat count has been reduced, but they will remain the Official Opposition, winning 27 ridings. The Ontario Liberal Party, while not winning their leader Bonnie Crombie’s seat, secured official party status after a long 7 year wait.  

The Big Issues:  

While overall satisfaction with the PC government stayed soft on the big issues of healthcare, cost of living and housing, the regional and emotional salience of the current U.S. tariff threat helped the PCs secure this victory. Ford and the Progressive Conservatives ran a relentlessly focussed campaign, cementing the ballot question with a “Protect Ontario” message. International politics can be risky to tie into a campaign, but the question of “who is best equipped to deal with Trump” resonated with the fears people feel about their jobs, their families, and their futures in places impacted by tariffs – overshadowing the baggage that usually encumbers a long-standing government.  

Local Matters: 

Local candidates and campaigns, as well as strategic voting, had an outsized effect in this campaign, resulting in tough fights where incumbents should have sailed to victory. For example, incumbent PC MPP Dawn Gallagher Murphy faced a closer than comfortable battle in Newmarket-Aurora, a riding where it should have been an easy PC victory. 

Another example of local dynamics is victory of an underdog incumbent winning a crushing victory in a historically partisan riding in Haldimand-Norfolk. In strong southern Ontario PC
territory, Independent Bobbi Ann Brady secured a landslide victory with 33,669 ballots, or
63.7 percent of total votes cast, against the PC candidate.

Both the PCs and OLP poured resources into Ajax, long part of the Ford government’s
strong Durham region blue belt. OLP candidate Rob Cerjanec, a prominent figure in
Ajax, pulled through a hard-fought victory of only 331 votes over the incumbent PC.

Strategic voters were ruthless in these fights, and with rare exceptions, the anti-Ford vote
flocked to defend incumbent MPPs, especially the NDP’s “orange wall.” This led to a low
number of three-way races in this election. Only in ridings where the PCs were perceived to not have a chance did more open races transpire. This explains why, despite having a
higher percentage of votes compared to last election, Ford did not add many seats.

The NDP retains its status as the Official Opposition

Marit Stiles and the Ontario NDP maintained their grasp on the Official Opposition mantle, with a total of 27 seats. Despite receiving fewer votes overall than the Ontario Liberals they secured more seats than them, owing in large part to their effective ground game and concentration of support in key ridings. How did they pull off this feat?

Opinion research conducted by Counsel from February 4–10 found decided Ontario NDP
voters were more likely than decided PC or OLP voters to say that they were voting for their party because they ‘like the party’s candidate in my local riding or constituency.’  

In comparison, decided PC voters who were more likely to say that they were voting for their party because they ‘liked the leader of the party,’ while decided OLP voters were relatively more driven to vote for their party because they ‘didn’t want another party to form government.’ This helps to contextualize the higher NDP vote efficiency in favour of incumbents, compared to PC or Liberal voters who were voting for or against the government and Premier.  

The Ontario Liberal Party’s minor breakthrough?

The Ontario Liberal Party, despite receiving nearly 30% of the popular vote, will return to
Queen’s Park with official party status and an underwhelming 14 seats. Liberal Leader
Bonnie Crombie was unable to secure her own seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville – an
outcome that will bring her leadership into question with a mandatory leadership review
required within the next two years.  

Beneath the seat numbers, the OLP did relatively well in every Mississauga riding and grew in vote share in the GTA. The OLP may have re-established themselves as the default opposition party in the 905. However, with the PCs polling so strongly, the OLP failed to secure more seats in that crucial region. The Liberals will also need to find a way back into the urban centres of SW and Northern Ontario where they were shut out. 

What’s next?  

Premier Ford’s campaign parlayed the Trump administration’s tariff threat to their advantage, coupled that with the need for unified, experienced leadership to keep Canada safe. With the next tariff deadline looming next Tuesday, we expect Ford to act quickly to make good on his promises to “protect Ontario,” ensuring supports for businesses and workers will be included in the upcoming Budget which will be delivered in the near future. With a federal election expected in April, a big question for Ford will be how his leadership role will evolve when there is a new Prime Minister and a stable federal government. 

Now that the PC government has a 4-year runway to pursue its agenda to protect the province’s economy from the effects of a potential trade war, businesses looking to engage government are advised to fit that narrative and describe how they are meeting the moment. How much of your supply chain is rooted in Canada, how much you benefit other Canadian businesses, and how you can contribute to breaking down interprovincial trade barriers are among the questions of interest to the new government.  

Counsel has closely monitored the 2025 Ontario provincial election campaigns, strategy, and announcements. Our team is ready to advise your business or organization on your advocacy goals in the post-election landscape in Ontario.   

Stay tuned for additional analysis of the results of the 2025 Election and Premier Ford’s cabinet in the next week to ten days.    

NOTE ON METHODOLOGY 

1,506 Ontario residents 18+ were surveyed between February 4 – February 10, 2025. 

The survey was conducted online by the Leger Opinion (LEO) Panel, which was used in whole or in part for the collection of data. Margin of error is not applicable for online surveys, however, if the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate to +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty. Results were weighted for age, gender, region of Ontario, and education with targets set out in the most recent census. Note: some slides, totals, or net-differences may not add up to 100% due to rounding.