Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs Secure Historic Third Majority Government

Election Night – Overview of results (as of 02/28/2025 7:55 am ET)  

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have won a strong third majority mandate to pursue their governing agenda in Ontario. The CBC News desk called the PC’s projected victory a mere eight minutes after polls closed, followed by the NDP remaining the Official Opposition. 

At the time of writing, the PCs will send 80 MPPs to Queen’s Park, securing 43% of the popular vote, compared to 83 seats and 40.5% of the popular vote in 2022. It is rare for a provincial party in Canada to win a third majority – and rarer yet to expand their power. 

While overall satisfaction with the PC government may have been soft, the regional and emotional salience of the current U.S. tariff threat helped the PCs chart a path to this historic three-peat, as Counsel described via our public opinion research earlier in the campaign. 

The Ontario Liberal Party, despite receiving nearly 30% of the popular vote, will return to Queen’s Park with official party status and an underwhelming 14 seats. The Liberals suffered a shocking upset as Leader Bonnie Crombie was not able to secure her own seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville. While she announced that she intends to remain on as Leader, questions regarding her position are bound to emerge. 

Although the Ontario NDP seat count has been reduced, they will remain the Official Opposition, winning 27 ridings. While NDP received only 18.5% of the vote, the efficiency of their votes in key ridings made the difference, compared to the Liberals, whose votes were spread out too evenly across Ontario.  

Ontario’s Green Party held onto its two seats in Guelph and Kitchener-Centre and came close to securing a third in Parry Sound-Muskoka, receiving 41% of the vote. Local PC incumbent Graydon Smith, who currently serves as the Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry, will return to Queen’s Park after securing nearly 47% of the vote there. 

Counsel has closely monitored the 2025 Ontario provincial election campaigns, strategy, and announcements. Our team is ready to advise your business or organization on your advocacy goals in the post-election landscape in Ontario.  

Stay tuned for additional analysis of the results in the coming days.