Ontario Election: 5 (Plus 1!) Ridings to Watch

The 5 (Plus 1) Bellwether Ridings That Will Tell the Story of the 2025 Ontario Election 

Nearing the end of a breakneck, month-long Ontario election campaign characterized by tariffs, face-offs, family doctors and mountains of snow, the outcome now rests on 124 individual races playing out across the province. All four primary parties and their leaders have crisscrossed Ontario, bringing their election pitch to persuadable voters and offering their vision of leadership.  

As demonstrated in Counsel’s poll released last week – and reflecting the polling consensus – Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party maintain a very strong lead among voters and are poised to be re-elected to a third majority mandate. Nevertheless, there are interesting threads and changes that may be occurring below the headline that could have a significant impact on the character of the new Ontario Legislature and shape the politics of the years ahead.  

Here are the 5 (plus 1!) bellwether ridings that the team at Counsel Public Affairs will be watching on election night to better understand the story of the 2025 Ontario Election. 

Niagara Centre: Will the Ontario PC Party deepen its appeal with blue-collar voters in Ontario’s industrial heartland? 

Perhaps the most remarkable political achievement of the Doug Ford-led PC Party is its impressive support among blue-collar voters in Ontario’s traditional industrial heartland. For decades, this region was a reliable NDP bastion. Since Doug Ford’s election in 2018, significant political realignment has been underway. Finding Ford’s personal brand and leadership style to translate well, both Ford and his key Ministers have cultivated an impressive collection of endorsements from organized labour. Counsel’s earlier poll, the highlights of which were released last week, found that among voters indicating they belonged to a private sector union, 4 in 10 (41%) were intending to vote for the PC Party – a nearly 20-point advantage over the combined support for the Ontario Liberals and NDP among private sector union members. Add to that the economic peril of impending tariffs and Ford’s eager embrace of protecting Ontario manufacturing and you have the perfect recipe for further realignment.   

The PC Party identified these “orange to blue” swing voters early on as a key target to either grow their majority or offset potential losses in other parts of Ontario. Ford has campaigned relentlessly in Southwestern Ontario – even spending the final day of the campaign hitting multiple NDP-held seats in this region. There are multiple targets in play, but key to watch is Niagara Centre. The riding encompasses the industrial towns of Welland, Port Colborne, and part of St. Catharines – all border-adjacent communities where the impact of the potential Trump tariffs and Ford’s vocal defense of Ontario businesses deeply resonates. The riding has been NDP-held since 1975, but incumbent NDP MPP Jeff Burch is facing a determined challenge. The PC Party, replicating a successful playbook from 2022, has recruited high profile Port Colborne mayor Bill Steele as its standard bearer. The outcome of this race will say a lot about the depth of the shift of NDP voters into the PC column. 

Brampton Centre: Will the Ontario Liberals Resurrect in the 905? 

With only 9 MPPs currently elected in the Ontario Legislature prior to dissolution, the Ontario Liberal Party has spent the last six years in the political wilderness. Without official party status (12 seats), the OLP caucus has played the role of scrappy third party in opposition. 

Under the leadership of Bonnie Crombie, the party consistently polls in second place among decided voters, breaking 30% in most recent provincial polls. Part of this comes from a relentless focus on access to health care as the ballot question – with 62% of Ontario voters, and 7 in 10 decided Ontario Liberal supporters identifying health care as one of their top 3 issues in Counsel’s recent polling. Although unseating the Ford PCs is seemingly well out of reach, a critical consolation is expanding the party caucus, returning to official party status and the potential to become the Official Opposition.   

The question is: where are those seats going to come from? While polling suggests strong Liberal performance in traditional heartlands like Toronto and Ottawa, the OLP campaign is also hoping for a breakthrough in some of the suburban areas surrounding the provincial capital as a critical steppingstone to greater ambitions in 2029. Peel Region is where the Liberals are hoping to see some early success, spurred by Crombie’s credibility as the former Mayor of Mississauga and a strong group of candidates. Crombie is spending the final hours of the campaign both in Peel and neighbouring Halton Regions, aiming to finish strongly. But significant questions remain as to how deep – and far – this may go. To see how well the OLP ambition aligns with reality, a good riding to watch is Brampton Centre, which has swung between three parties – PC, Liberal, and NDP – since 1997. This year, first-term PC MPP and Minister Charmaine Williams is squaring off against Martin Medeiros, a long-time Brampton city councillor and OLP recruit.  

Also worth watching is whether OLP leader Bonnie Crombie can secure a seat in the new legislature. She’s running in Mississauga East – Cooksville, an open seat with deep Liberal roots, which should ease her path to victory (or raise some very uncomfortable questions). 

Toronto – St. Paul’s: Will the NDP Hold the Line in Toronto?  

Like the pressure the NDP is encountering in Southwestern Ontario from the PC Party, there are significant warning signs in other NDP-held ridings in Toronto. As Ontarians soured on the Ontario Liberals under former Premier Kathleen Wynne, there was a significant shift of reliable Liberal votes to the NDP column in Toronto, with the result being strong NDP victories across the core part of the city over the past two elections. 

That success now appears to be under considerable pressure, as those same voters may be coalescing behind Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals in Toronto and other progressive-friendly urban areas. While some NDP incumbents are expected to triumph on the strength of their individual brands and strong local party presence, others will face much closer contests. Toronto – St. Paul’s will be a good barometer of how this shift in the “Anyone But Ford” vote plays out. Incumbent NDP member Jill Andrew is facing the well-recognized journalist Stephanie Smyth, who is carrying the OLP banner. The outcome here – and neighbouring seats – could tell the story of whether the NDP can remain the Official Opposition, or risks losing official party status altogether. 

Parry Sound – Muskoka: Will the Green Party Grow its Caucus? 

Mike Schreiner, the leader of the Green Party of Ontario and Guelph MPP, may be the most well-liked MPP at Queen’s Park. Schreiner successfully parlayed his moderate, consensus-building and community-focused approach into a successful 2023 by-election in Kitchener Centre, electing Aislinn Clancy as a second Green Party caucus member. 

In addition to defending its two current seats (where success looks promising), the Greens are looking to add a third member to their caucus. The target is Parry Sound – Muskoka, where candidate Matt Richter’s herculean effort came within about 2,000 votes of flipping the riding from PC blue to green. Richter’s grassroots party-building has paid impressive dividends, but this rematch won’t be easy. PC incumbent Graydon Smith has likewise focused on local priorities in addition to his responsibilities as the Minister for Natural Resources, and the favourable environment for the PC Party under Doug Ford will make Richter’s lift even heavier. 

Timiskaming – Cochrane: How Goes the North?  

There is nothing quite like campaigning in Northern Ontario. The huge geographies and far-flung communities make for challenging campaigning in the best of times, let alone in the middle of February. What’s even more challenging is an accurate picture of how voters may decide across the frozen north. 

For years, Northern Ontario was an NDP bastion punctuated by flashes of Liberal red. As Northern industries have faced increasing pressure and declined, alongside the fortunes of the Ontario Liberals, a door was cracked open for the PC Party. Similarly to their breakthroughs in Southwestern Ontario in 2022, the PC Party was able to net a trio of Northern Ontario seats in 2022. The party is looking to expand that effort this year in several Northern Ontario seats. Counsel’s own polling suggests that effort may be paying off: with Northern Ontario voters expressing a preference for the PC Party at over ten points more than either the NDP or Liberals. A good litmus test of how far that effort may reach? Timiskaming – Cochrane, where longstanding NDP MPP John Vanthof is facing PC candidate and Iroquois Falls Mayor Tory Delaurier. As Counsel’s polling demonstrates, Ford’s management of the Ontario economy in the face of the tariff threat remains his strongest asset with Ontario voters – valuable currency in a riding dominated by natural resource industries with deep export ties south of the border. 

POLLING – NOTE ON METHODOLOGY

1,506 Ontario residents 18+ were surveyed between February 4 – February 10, 2025. 

The survey was conducted online by the Leger Opinion (LEO) Panel, which was used in whole or in part for the collection of data. Margin of error is not applicable for online surveys, however, if the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate to +/- 3% nineteen times out of twenty. Results were weighted for age, gender, region of Ontario, and education with targets set out in the most recent census. Note: some slides, totals, or net-differences may not add up to 100% due to rounding.