Ontario Election: Tariff Timeout

British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was once asked what the most troubling problem of his prime ministership was. “Events, my dear boy, events,” was his reply. We’re sure the leaders of all Ontario parties can relate to Mr. Macmillan after a wild last week. But, with Monday’s news of a 30-day tariff pause, what does this mean for an Ontario campaign that’s so far been dominated by Trump and trade discourse?

From the point of view of the Conservatives, the key is to keep the focus on Trump, trade, and Doug Ford’s current position as “Captain Canada”; it’s an effective tool to starve the other campaigns of oxygen, while reinforcing Doug Ford’s incumbent advantages as a (former) Premier actively conducting the business of the people in a time of crisis. The trick for the Conservative campaign at this critical moment is to recognize Trump’s unpredictability as an asset that can be used to distract your opposition, but one that can also knock you off your message.

The Conservative campaign needs to keep the focus on their core message of “Protect Ontario”, that a tariff threat delayed is still a threat, and most specifically the impact on people, the cost of living, and his plan to help. That’s the core of their message even outside of this turbulent time.

However, this pause also presents an opportunity for the opposition parties to change the channel and drag the campaign away from a frame that’s leaving them out of the spotlight.

Before the tariff announcement, the Ontario NDP started their campaign with a populist affordability proposal, focused on suburban (GTA) voters, taking the tolls off the 407. A policy that they hoped would break through early as it speaks to affordability concerns and comes with a baked-in “surprise factor” from the progressive party. However, rather than doubling down on these affordability planks, Marit Stiles and the ONDP campaign have leaned right into the tariff discourse, attempting to position themselves as a better fighter for jobs, and a better foil for Trump, than the Conservative leader.

They’ve released various policy planks centred on protecting jobs and their tour has focused mostly on eastern/industrial Ontario talking about jobs and the impact of tariffs. Now that the tariff threat is stalled, it is imperative for the ONDP to pivot to a message that is based in what they want this election to be about. Education should be a core focus for a leader who was once a school trustee and given parents’ frustration with the system.

The Ontario Liberals are now trying to drag this campaign back to their desired turf, healthcare. They kicked off their campaign talking about doctor and nurse shortages, wait times, and even their bus has the bold healthcare statement “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year” painted on the side. While leader Bonnie Crombie and her campaign have also been dragged into the Trump/Tariff discourse, they have shown a bit more discipline in remaining focused on their message. The key is to not fall into the traps that will throw them off this path.

Events, my dear boy, events! They can be a gift during a campaign but can drag you down if you don’t play them right. Will this election continue to be dominated by Trump? Or will the opposition parties find some daylight now that the threat has been paused? The battle now turns to who can more effectively stay on their message, or if events will carry the day.