By-Election Breakdown

While the House Returns, Liberals face another set back 

Voters were sent to the polls in two federal ridings last night – with the results showing how the dynamics in federal politics have changed. 

The NDP were able to hold onto the Manitoba seat in Elmwood—Transcona against the ascendant Conservatives while the Bloc Québécois scored an upset in the Quebec riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. The two by-elections were held shortly after Jagmeet Singh pulled the NDP out of the Confidence and Supply Agreement (CASA) with the governing Liberals and only a short three months since the Liberals’ shocking by-election loss in the heart of urban Toronto.  

With Parliament now resumed for the Fall, the two by-elections will supercharge an already fluid and unpredictable dynamic in the House of Commons proceedings.

The Results 

The NDP were able to hold their historically safe seat in Elmwood – Transcona by 1,158 votes. While the NDP vote share remained fairly constant relative to previous elections, the Conservatives saw their vote share in the riding surge by 16 per cent, mostly at the expense of the Liberals and People’s Party. This victory is a continuation of years of NDP dominance in the riding, including the tenure of Daniel Blaikie, who stepped down earlier this year to take on a new role as intergovernmental affairs advisor to Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew. Nonetheless, the Conservatives have now placed themselves in striking distance of this NDP stronghold.  

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois secured victory in the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election, defeating the long-dominant Liberal Party in the Montreal riding. The by-election was called after the resignation of David Lametti from Parliament, following his surprise ouster from cabinet as Justice Minister last summer. Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé edged out Liberal contender Laura Palestini with the NDP’s Craig Sauvé finishing a close third. The Liberals’ loss in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun marks an astonishing 15-point collapse of the Liberal vote in this riding where they have traditionally held a routine and healthy double-digit margin.  

Analysis 

The NDP’s retention of Elmwood – Transcona cuts both ways. Having freshly departed the CASA, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will take the by-election victory as confirmation of a well-executed strategy to squeeze the Liberals, whose vote share dropped by 10 points in the riding. But a closer scrutiny of the results reveals a stagnant NDP under threat by a surging Conservative vote.  

Despite the Conservatives loss in Elmwood – Transcona, much can be gleaned from their well-executed strategy. The party tapped Colin Reynolds, a local union electrician, to carry the Conservative banner in alignment with their slogan of “boots not suits.” In the lead up to the by-election the Conservatives also released several attack ads framing NDP Leader Singh as “Sellout Singh.” Pierre Poilievre’s relentless pursuit of a “Carbon Tax Election” likely pressured Singh into distancing his party from their prior support of the Liberal carbon tax just days before the by-election – a stance also made possible by the NDP’s recent departure from CASA. The ascendant Conservatives are using their dominance in the public square to influence the ballot question. 

However, the Conservatives’ inability to convert their national political momentum into another by-election upset victory signals unfinished business for Mr. Poilievre and his team. While the CPC secured their right flank by capturing the People’s Party vote, they were unable to crack into the NDP vote share. Poilievre spent the summer visiting innumerable shop floors and union halls delivering his pro-worker message of “powerful paycheques” and attempted to disarm his union critiques by disavowing previous Conservative policy which has been routinely denounced by union leaders as anti-worker.  

In Quebec, the Bloc eked out a slim 248 vote margin to secure victory in the tight three-way race for LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. The Bloc victory was due in part to modest 6 per cent increase in vote share compared to 2021; however, it was ultimately due to the cratering of the Liberal vote, which is becoming increasingly difficult to decouple from the Trudeau brand, even in his hometown of Montreal. The loss of two stronghold ridings in three months demonstrates that voters are tired of Justin Trudeau – just as they grew tired of previous long-tenured prime ministers.  

Why this matters to you 

As Parliament resumes sitting this week, the Liberals return to work further reduced in their seat count and morale. More importantly, however, the Liberals will find themselves in more tumultuous waters without the guaranteed support of the NDP to advance their legislative agenda or maintain the confidence of the House.  

The Bloc breakthrough occurring in tandem with the NDP departure from the CASA opens a new opportunity for the Bloc to play a power broker role in the House of Commons, where support for the Liberals can now be exchanged for concessions to Quebec.  

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has publicly stated he is going to lead the Liberals into the next election, the loss in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun will mount further pressure on Trudeau to resign and for the Liberals to hold a leadership race as the incumbent losses in both Toronto and Montreal confirm the weakness of the Liberals’ traditional support among urbanite voters.  

A parliamentary dynamic of instability and uncertainty looms over the government, with potential confidence votes around the corner and key legislation still on the order paper.