Pierre’s Picks: Ridings to Watch for the Next Federal Election

With the NDP withdrawing their support from the Confidence and Supply Agreement, the next federal election could happen at any time between now and October 2025. Candidate recruitment is a top priority for each political party. As the Conservative Party of Canada has maintained a strong lead in the polls, they have been able to attract high-quality candidates from across the country.

Let’s take a closer look at some formidable candidates who will undoubtedly take up key roles in a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre.

Nominations and the new face of the Conservative Party

Although many people would aspire to be Conservative MPs in a Poilievre government, the Party has been selective in who they are proactively looking to attract to their bench.

In the lead up to the next election, the candidates of choice are regular Canadians. Gone are the days where experts are highly sought after for their big names and long resumes.

This serves many purposes: Canadians will see themselves and their values reflected in the Conservative party, and for caucus management, those who have slugged it out for years in opposition won’t get overlooked for fancy high profile people.

A proof point of this preference is the Party’s current finance critic, Jasraj Singh Hallan, a small business owner from Calgary. Pierre puts more value in having someone who represents the main streets of Canada, rather than Bay Street.

Another example is the first nomination contest where a CPC incumbent MP was defeated. William Stevenson is now the nominated candidate in Yellowhead, having defeated two-term MP Gerald Soroka. For many years Stevenson has been a local volunteer and CFO of numerous CPC riding associations. He is a well-respected accountant from the riding and all around the type of person the party is looking to attract.

The breadth and caliber of Conservative candidates retained under Poilievre’s leadership is proof of the Conservative movement’s momentum.

Notable Nominations

Ellis Ross, Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC

Ross is a former Chief of the Haisla Nation and MLA in British Columbia. Ross was a major advocate for responsible energy projects in partnership with Indigenous communities in both of his past professions. This is a central competent in Pierre Poilievre’s Indigenous Strategy which seeks to advance reconciliation through unlocking and returning economic prosperity to Indigenous peoples.

Ross had been an MLA since 2017 and served as the Minister of Natural Gas Development and Housing in the Liberal Government lead by Christy Clark.

Ross will be up against NDP MP Taylor Bachrach. The riding has been an NDP stronghold since its creation in 2004 but with a star candidate such as Ross, that may change.

Aaron Gunn, North Island-Powell River, BC

Aaron Gunn is a notable Conservative film maker who has made waves through his social media accounts with content related to controversial drug policies and the violent crime epidemic in Canada. Gunn has cultivated a subscriber base for his content in the hundreds of thousands, which will surely prove to be potent during the campaign.

Before starting in journalism, Gunn was a Canadian Army Reserve member and worked for the Canadian Taxpayer Federation.

North Island-Powell River is currently held by NDP MP Rachel Blaney, but Blaney has said she will not run in the next federal election. This will surely be a riding to watch closely as the Conservatives have been hammering the governing Liberals and the provincial NDP government on their safe supply agenda and lack of action against violent crime.

Parm Gill, Milton East—Halton Hills South, ON

Parm Gill is a former Ontario Progressive Conservative MPP and Minister of Citizenship & Multiculturalism and Red Tape Reduction. In early 2024, Parm Gill resigned from Doug Ford’s caucus to become a CPC candidate in the same area where he was a provincial MPP.

Parm is no stranger to Federal politics, having served as a Conservative MP in the Brampton area from 2011 to 2015. Parm rose in the Harper led Conservative government to become Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Veterans Affairs and then International Trade.

Gill is a formidable fundraiser and has already brought in hundreds of thousands of dollars into the party since being nominated. His candidacy will be critical in gaining seats in the vote rich GTA riding. Although this is a new riding under the new federal election boundaries, the geographic area has been a swing riding for both the Conservatives and the Liberals in recent elections.

Billy Morin, Edmonton Northwest, AB

Billy Morin is running in the new riding of Edmonton Northwest. Morin is a former Chief of the Enoch Cree Nation, having served from 2015 until 2022. During his time as Chief, he championed $500,000 million in infrastructure investments and business development activity for the Enoch Nation. He also created a Memorandum of Understanding with the City of Edmonton, the first large municipality agreement with First Nations in Canada, which coordinated fire, policing, social supports, utility infrastructure and governance enhancements for both communities.

He has been a trusted advisor to Premier Danielle Smith and has been much sought after by conservatives provincially and federally to run as a candidate. Morin expands and diversifies the Conservatives reach in Alberta.

Karen Stintz, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON

Karen Stintz is a former Toronto City Councillor and Toronto Transit Commission Chair. Stintz is currently the President and CEO of Variety Village and Variety the Children’s Charity – Ontario.

Stintz’s background in municipal politics and experience running a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, has cemented her strong reputation in the GTA.

The riding is currently held by former minister Marco Mendicino, with the seat having been held by the Liberals since 1979 with the exception of the Conservative majority win in 2011. As we have seen in the recent Toronto St-Paul’s byelection, GTA Liberal strongholds are no longer safe and clearly, this will be a targeted seat for the Conservatives.

Ron Chhinzer, Oakville East, ON

Ron Chhinzer has two decades of experience working in law enforcement for the Toronto Police Service and Peel Regional Police Service. Chhinzer has deep connections with the rank-and-file police across the GTA and is a strong communicator with a massive social media following across Canada. He was previously a candidate for the Toronto Police union president and remains active in supporting front line police across the GTA, even though he officially retired from policing a number of months ago.

His strong background in law enforcement will undoubtedly play well into Poilievre’s public safety narrative, and Poilievre has already called upon him a number of times for advice on policing matters Chhinzer was the byelection candidate in Mississauga-Lakeshore in 2022, so he has that experience under his belt and will be a strong campaigner in the coming general election, even though he will likely be up against front-bench Liberal cabinet Minister Anita Anand.

Gaétan Malette, Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, ON

Heading to Northern Ontario, the Conservatives have picked up Gaétan Malette to hold the banner in the new riding. Malette boasts strong ties to the Northern Ontario having lived in the area his whole life and running several forestry related operations throughout the region, he also has worked in mining operations in Timmins. Malette’s strong understanding of the resource sector will also be key to extending Poilievre’s message of unleashing Canada’s resource sector to bring home power paycheques to Northern Ontarians.

With the veteran NDP MP Charlie Angus announcing that he will not be seeking reelection, there will be new candidates for all parties in the riding when the next election happens. Northern Ontario has traditionally been a mix of NDP and Liberal seats but with the increasing cost of living that significantly impacts rural Canadians, we may see a blue wave surge across the region.

Eric Lefebvre, Richmond–Arthabaska, QC

Eric Lefebvre is a former CAQ (Coalition Avenir Québec) government whip and will be running in the riding of Richmond-Arthabaska, a riding which is currently held by former CPC and current independent Alain Rayes. Eric was formerly a city councillor for Victoriaville and previously ran for the federal Conservatives in 2008.

Richmond–Arthabaska has seen both the Conservatives, and the Bloc Québécois hold the seat over the past 20 years. The Conservative Party of Canada has always struggled to break through in Quebec, but ensuring winnable seats are captured is important for the Conservatives as they edge towards a majority government.

Jamie Fox, Malpeque, PEI

Heading further east, former provincial Conservative Minister Jamie Fox resigned from the PEI government to run under the Conservative banner in November 2023. Fox is a former Leader of the Official Opposition in PEI and a former Minister of Fisheries and Communities under Premier Daniel King.

The riding of Malpeque is currently held by Liberal MP Heath MacDonald and has been held by the Liberals since 1988. The Atlantic provinces have evaded Conservatives in the last three elections where the Liberals have historically been a dominant force. However, with the notable and changing sentiment around the carbon tax and affordability issues generally, the Atlantic seats may be a novel path to victory for the Poilievre campaign.

David Brazil, St. John’s East, NL

David Brazil has over 25 years in senior management roles within the Newfoundland Government and is a former Leader of the Official Opposition in the House of Assembly. Brazil’s experience in provincial politics will undoubtedly support his efforts in capturing the St. John’s East seat for the Tories.

Newfoundland and Labrador has also been a hot bed for anti-carbon tax sentiment. Liberal Premier Andrew Furey has called on Trudeau to pause increases to the carbon tax for the province due to the cost-of-living crisis. It should be noted that last October, current Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal MP Ken McDonald had voted in favour of a Conservative motion in the House of Commons calling for the repeal of the carbon tax.

Brazil will face off against Liberal MP Joanne Thompson who was recently elected in 2021 to the riding. The seat has had Liberal, NDP, and Conservative MPs representing the riding since the 1950’s and will surely be a race to watch.

The Carbon Tax Byelection

Justin Trudeau has called two byelections to be held on September 16, 2024 for the ridings of Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba and LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec.

The Conservatives will put the bulk of their resources into Elmwood—Transcona. The riding has been a traditional NDP stronghold since 1988, with the exception of the CPC majority government holding the seat between 2011 – 2015. It should be noted that former MP Daniel Blaikie’s father, Will Blaikie, had held the riding for close to 20 years. The NDP have chosen Leila Dance, an executive director of the Transcona BIZ, as their candidate for the byelection.

The Conservatives have picked electrician Colin Reynolds to run in the riding, highlighting Poilievre’s “boots not suits” narrative. A vice-president of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Canada, a union representing more than 70,000 members in the country, has endorsed Reynolds highlighting his 20 years of experience and understanding of union dynamics.

Poilievre recently held a rally in support of Reynolds which garnered over 1,000 supporters. Unsurprisingly, Poilievre has framed this byelection as a “mini carbon tax referendum” and a “carbon tax byelection” undoubtedly lumping in the NDP and Liberals as the carbon tax coalition.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun appears to be a three-way competition between the Liberals, Bloc, and NDP. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh went to the Quebec riding soon after the byelection was announced. But having two competitive byelections for the NDP could split their focus which could be detrimental in saving the Elmwood—Transcona seat.

The byelections could also be interpreted as a referendum on Jagmeet Singh’s leadership. If Singh is unable to hold the Elmwood—Transcona NDP stronghold, it may be an undeniable confirmation that his leadership isn’t resonating with Canadians.

Why this matters to you

The Conservative candidates highlighted have a strong chance of being elected, in which case they will be notable changemakers in Ottawa. Understanding the local and national issues that resonate with these candidates and how they fit into a new Conservative Caucus will be an important consideration when planning your government relations strategy. As we move closer to an election in October 2025 or sooner, it is imperative to understand which ridings will be a focus for the Conservatives.

Change in Ottawa is on the horizon. Are you ready?

Counsel has a strong team of experienced conservative consultants to help you get prepared: