Saskatchewan Party Wins Fifth Record Majority

NDP take nearly all of Regina and Saskatoon   

Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party captured 35 of 61 seats in the provincial legislature, anchored by their rock-solid support in rural Saskatchewan. This represents the fifth straight majority for the Saskatchewan Party, a record unmatched since 1960 and cements their claim as a modern Canadian political dynasty. 

But, despite the win, voters in Regina and Saskatoon sent the government a stern message where the opposition New Democrats carried 24 of 26 seats and defeated five Saskatchewan Party cabinet ministers.  

The Saskatchewan Party attracted 53% of the popular vote to the NDP’s 40%, which will leave more than a few pollsters examining their methodologies in Saskatchewan. The smaller parties proved to be no factor, with the right-wing, populist Saskatchewan United Party drawing only 4%. At nearly 53%, the provincial voter turnout was nearly identical to the last election in 2020.  

Both elected and defeated MLAs spoke about the challenge ahead for both parties to bridge the stark political urban/rural divide that now exists. As the government, this challenge will be felt most acutely by the Saskatchewan Party where last night’s results will undoubtedly generate considerable political and policy reflection. 

For the NDP, despite the loss, it was a night of considerable celebration. The results will mean more human and financial resources when they return to the legislature.  

NDP leader Carla Beck at first appeared disappointed but was greeted by a large crowd of enthusiastic supporters in Regina saying, “we might not have crossed the finish line first tonight, but we have changed the landscape in this province.”  

Moe was careful to speak of the mixed results when he spoke to a crowd of supporters in his hometown of Shellbrook. 

 “I have heard the message that was delivered here this evening, and the Saskatchewan Party will be a government that works for all of the people of Saskatchewan,” Moe said. 

Moe has pulse on rural Saskatchewan 

There can be no doubt that Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party have a lasting appeal for voters in rural Saskatchewan where they have long been seen as champions of the province’s resource economy. Moe is probably best known beyond Saskatchewan for his opposition to the federal carbon tax, which continues to be bitterly opposed in rural Saskatchewan. And the Saskatchewan Party never fail to remind voters of the “dark days” under the NDP prior to 2007. Clearly, it’s a formula that continues to pay dividends politically. The question now will become, how will they best move forward in Regina and Saskatoon?  

Beck faced a steep climb 

When the campaign began, Counsel Public Affairs outlined the enormous political challenge that lay ahead for the NDP. For the NDP to win, we outlined they would need to take the next closest 17 Saskatchewan Party seats and likely every one of the 26 seats in Regina and Saskatoon, plus 5 more.  

Last night, pending recounts, they nearly accomplished that difficult goal in Regina and Saskatoon, but managed to win only two other seats in the rest of the province. They were shut out in the province’s smaller cities like Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, the Battlefords, and Yorkton.  

What’s next? 

Scott Moe has an immediate challenge of naming a new cabinet from a sharply reduced caucus. Look to past cabinet veterans like Jim Reiter, Everett Hindley, and David Marit. And as one of just two government MLAs from Saskatoon, Ken Cheveldayoff will no doubt be making a return to cabinet in a high-profile role. 

Over the coming days and weeks Counsel Public Affairs will be offering more insight and analysis of the Saskatchewan election including an online panel of public policy professionals ready to cover all the government and political challenges ahead for the Moe government. Stay tuned!