BC Election Night Battleground Ridings to Watch

The 2024 BC election campaign has been many things, but one thing it has not been – is boring. We expect even more excitement tomorrow night as the difference between victory and defeat for the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives will likely come down to a few votes in a handful of battleground districts. 

We have identified key battleground ridings to watch. While some are primarily out of interest and intrigue, most of the constituencies we have included here are crucial in determining who will form the next provincial government after all the ballots are counted.  

Richmond 

(Richmond Centre, Richmond-Steveston, Richmond-Queensborough)  

These were BC Liberal seats before the 2020 election when Henry Yao (Richmond Centre), Kelly Greene (Richmond-Steveston), and Aman Singh (Richmond-Queensborough) secured breakthroughs for the BC NDP. The Conservatives need to win these electoral districts if they want to form government. Hon Chan (Richmond Centre), Michelle Mollineaux (Richmond-Steveston), and Steve Kooner (Richmond-Queensborough) are running for the Conservatives.  

This is the year of the independent candidate, and Richmond is no exception, with Wendy Yuan, Sunny Ho, and Dickens Cheung running in Queensborough.  The outcome of these local elections in Richmond will go a long way to determining who forms government. 

Surrey  

(Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Serpentine River) 

Ten seats are up for grabs in BC’s fastest-growing and second-largest city, including Serpentine River, which was added for 2024 as part of BC’s electoral boundaries review. In 2020, the BC NDP won seven of nine seats. The BC Conservatives are hoping for several pickups, including Surrey-Cloverdale, where Conservative candidate Elenore Sturko is running against incumbent New Democrat Mike Starchuk, and Surrey-Serpentine River, where former Surrey Mayor and Conservative hopeful Linda Hepner is running against New Democrat Baltej Singh Dhillon, the first RCMP officer to wear a turban on the job.  

The chances for pickups by the BC Conservatives have become more challenging due to a series of offensive comments made by Surrey South Conservative candidate Brent Chapman. In addition to his own constituency, Chapman’s comments could negatively impact any effort the BC Conservatives make to break the BC NDP’s firewall in Surrey.  

Vancouver 

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: In 2020, BC Green candidate Jeremy Valeriote came within a whisker of beating BC Liberal Jordan Sturdy. Valeriote is running again, this time against Conservative Yuri Fulmer and New Democrat Jen Ford. This has been an uneven campaign for the Greens. On the negative side, they were only able to nominate candidates in 69 of 93 constituencies. On the plus side, Leader Sonia Furstenau had an impressive performance in the televised leadership debate. A Green victory in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky is critical to its viability. This seat would also be part of the path to the 47-seat majority the Conservatives would need to win. 

West Vancouver-Capilano: Once again, the candidacy of a former BC United incumbent may provide an obstacle to victory for the BC Conservatives. In this case, Karin Kirkpatrick is seeking re-election. Kirkpatrick, a moderate in the BC United camp, is running because she was upset by BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s decision to pull the plug on the party’s campaign. In short order, Kirkpatrick was able to raise $50,000 and run a strong independent campaign. All of this is bad news for Lynn Block, who is running for the BC Conservatives. It is always a challenge for an independent to win. However, it would be wrong to write off Kirkpatrick’s candidacy. She has a chance to win, which is bound to cause heartburn for Conservative organizers. 

Langley  

(Langley-Willowbrook, Langley-Walnut Grove) 

In 2020, the BC NDP picked up two seats that were traditionally considered to be locks for the BC Liberals: Langley, which was won by Andrew Mercier, and Langley East, which was won by Megan Dykeman. Both candidates won partially because of a vote split between the BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives. In 2024, no such split on the right exists. Mercier is running in Langley-Willowbrook, a product of electoral boundary changes, and Dykeman is seeking re-election in Langley-Walnut Grove. The New Democrats have sent some of their strongest organizers to shore up their campaigns. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are running Jody Toor in Langley-Willowbrook and Misty Van Popta in Langley-Walnut Grove. As is the case in many communities, the stakes are high in Langley. 

Vancouver Island 

Victoria-Beacon Hill: This electoral district was transformed from sleepy to interesting in January when BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau decided to run in this BC NDP stronghold rather than in Cowichan, where she had been re-elected twice. Tim Thielmann, a local lawyer running for the Conservatives, has built a following largely around law-and-order issues and is also a significant factor in this local campaign. However, it would be foolhardy to under-estimate New Democrat Grace Lore, a hard-working and popular local MLA and cabinet minister who has been knocking on doors since January and is running a visible and well-financed local campaign. This may turn into a three-way fight on election night where the ground game and GOTV (get out the vote) strategies could make the difference between victory and defeat. 

Nanaimo-Lantzville: This riding has been altered as part of electoral boundary changes and is competitive with no incumbent. Gwen O’Mahony, a former BC NDP MLA for Chilliwack-Hope, is running for the BC Conservatives. George Anderson, a city councilor and lawyer who has served as chair of the Vancouver Island University Board of Governors, is running for the New Democrats. Lia Versaevel, a conflict resolution specialist, is running for the Greens. During this campaign cycle, the Conservatives have been busy on Vancouver Island, and Nanaimo-Lantzville is clearly part of their electoral plan for victory. 

Ladysmith-Oceanside: A significant portion of this oddly redrawn constituency is part of the old Parksville Qualicum riding, which Adam Walker won for the BC NDP in 2020. Walker was kicked out of the BC NDP caucus in 2023 following a human resources complaint. Walker, who served as an independent following his removal, is seeking re-election. He is running against a full slate of opponents, including New Democrat Stephanie Higginson, Conservative Brent Fee, and Green Party candidate Laura Ferreira. This constituency is noteworthy because it is the one electoral district where an independent candidate poses a possible obstacle for the BC NDP. 

The North and Interior 

Peace River North, Peace River South: These should be easy wins for BC Conservative candidates Jordan Kealy in Peace River North and Larry Neufeld in Peace River South.  However, this is no typical election. Mike Bernier, a former cabinet minister and incumbent, is running as an independent after BC United Leader Kevin Falcon pulled the plug on the party’s campaign. Bernier’s friend and colleague Dan Davies, elected twice under the BC Liberal banner, is doing the same in Peace River South. This is a real test for the BC Conservatives. Losing one of these seats would be a setback, but losing both would be a disaster.  

Prince George-North Cariboo and Kootenay-Rockies:  You have heard this story before – a seemingly safe Conservative seat made less so because a former BC United MLA is running as an independent. Coralee Oakes is seeking her third term as MLA. She will be running against Conservative Sheldon Clare for the seat along with New Democrat Denice Bardua, and Green Party candidate Randy Thompson. This is yet another seat the Conservatives need, and they will have to fight harder than they normally would have to win it. In addition, long-time BC United MLA Tom Shypitka will be running as an independent, putting an obstacle in Conservative Pete Davis’s path to victory.  

Our Counsel Public Affairs team will be on the doorsteps on Election Day and will bring you our front-line analysis of the election results in the coming days. Polls close tomorrow (Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024) at 8:00 PM (Pacific time).