BC Election Results on a Razor’s Edge as Final Vote Count Looms

Although we will have to wait until Oct. 26-28 to find out who won the BC election, there is much to learn from the final ballot count that wrapped up on the weekend.  

Despite both the BC Conservatives and the BC NDP claiming victory and pundits providing their own take on the election, the winner will be the party that forms a government. In politics, there are no moral victories and there are no ugly wins.    

For the BC NDP, governing means cutting a deal with the Greens, a partnership that worked to sustain the New Democrats in power from 2017-2020. The Greens will go into any negotiation with eyes wide open because former BC Premier John Horgan scrapped the agreement when he had a chance to get a majority win. However, Green Leader Sonia Furstenau and BC NDP Leader David Eby have a lot of motivation to work together.  

None of that matters if recounts and final balloting flip the constituencies of Juan de Fuca-Malahat where the BC NDP lead by 23 votes and Surrey City Centre where the BC NDP lead by 96 votes, which would result in a Conservative majority victory.   

BC Conservative Leader John Rustad said in his speech Saturday that he will do everything in his power to bring down an NDP government and make a quick return to the polls. If the BC NDP and BC Greens come up with a stable working arrangement, Mr. Rustad’s options to bring down the government will be limited.    

Perhaps the party leader who came closest to getting exactly what they wanted was Sonia Furstenau who had candidates that split the progressive vote in ridings that resulted in Conservative wins denying the NDP a majority. And she elected two MLAs who will hold the balance of power in a minority government scenario. The only thing that would have strengthened her bargaining power was had she won a seat herself.  

However, all of that must wait until the recounts are complete. Until then, here are some observations from what we have learned from this close election fight:  

In a previous blog, we said that NDP Leader David Eby could lose as many as 13 local elections and still form a majority government. He lost 14 including five cabinet ministers. It is an understatement to suggest that this result should prompt some soul searching over what could have been done differently over the past two years.   

In that same blog, we said that BC Conservative Leader John Rustad had a difficult path to victory. On Saturday, we found out just how difficult that path was. Despite major breakthroughs in Surrey (where the Conservatives now hold seven of 10 seats), Richmond (where the Conservatives hold three of four seats), Langley (where the Conservatives took all three seats) and some modest success on Vancouver Island (two seats to date), the BC Conservatives are still two seats short of a majority, pending the outcome of the final vote count.  

Ultimately, all six incumbent MLAs who ran as independents went down to defeat. While other independents indirectly helped their competitors (for example Vernon-Lumby where NDP incumbent Harwinder Sandhu narrowly defeated BC Conservative Dennis Giesbrecht thanks to the presence of independent Kevin Acton), their presence on the ballot had little real impact.  

In our battlegrounds ridings to watch submission, we suggested that Richmond, Surrey and Langley were areas where the Conservatives needed to win to be successful. They were overwhelming successful in all three regions, which is why the election remains too close to call.   

Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau’s Victoria-Beacon Hill gamble did not pay off. New Democrat incumbent Grace Lore ultimately won a convincing win despite both the Greens and the Conservatives throwing everything they could at her. Furstenau won’t be in the legislature but will play a big role in discussions between the NDP and Greens. They will have lots of bargaining power in the two seats the Greens won in Saanich North and the Islands and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.  

The political gap between urban and rural/northern BC is now even wider. The BC Conservatives only hold one seat in Vancouver: Vancouver-Quilchena, which was won by Dallas Brodie. Seats that were speculated to be Conservative pickups (Vancouver-Langara and Vancouver-Yaletown) were won by New Democrats Sunita Dhir and Terry Yung. The BC NDP lost two northern/interior constituencies with veteran provincial and federal New Democrat Nathan Cullen was defeated in Bulkley Valley-Stikine and incumbent Roly Russell lost to Conservative Donegal Wilson in Boundary-Similkameen.  

All other observations will have to wait until the final votes are counted later this month. As we have throughout the campaign, Counsel Public Affairs will bring you analysis of the election and what it means to you.