Ballots & Battlegrounds: Canada Set for Federal Showdown

• Canadians will elect a new Government on April 28th.
• Key factors in the campaign: Donald Trump’s April 2nd tariff threat, the showdown between Poilievre and Carney, and the performance of the NDP & Bloc Quebecois.

The Fight We’ve Been Waiting For

Prime Minister Mark Carney has met with the Governor General and requested the dissolution of the House of Commons, a day before it was set to resume business. This officially begins the campaign period with the issuance of the writ for the 2025 Federal General election.

Canada’s political landscape has changed drastically in the past two months. A rarity in Canadian elections, foreign policy and in particular the Canada/US relationship will be the major issue in the campaign. Another major factor is the new and largely untested Liberal Leader, Mark Carney, who has been Prime Minister for only 10 days.  These shifts have caused a dramatic jump in the popularity of the Liberals, making the campaign a more competitive horse race than the landslide victory for the Conservatives predicted mere months ago.

The national parties vying for control of the House of Commons will need to make their case to the electorate over a minimum 35-day campaign. The Liberals are still ramping up their campaign with last-minute candidate nominations and platform development. Just last night, it was reported that Mark Carney will run in Nepean, the suburban Ottawa riding that borders Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton riding.

The Parties’ Pitches

Liberal Party of Canada

Liberal Leader Mark Carney aims to position himself as the best choice to deal with President Donald Trump and the nascent trade war, in line with recent polling showing that this is a core election issue for Canadians. Drawing on his experience as Governor of the Banks of Canada and England, Carney will compare his CV against that of career politician Pierre Poilievre to secure Canadians’ confidence as a competent guiding hand through choppy economic waters.

The economy and cost of living remain a significant factor for voters. Polling data on how confident Canadians feel about the future – and the prospect of our economy weathering the current period of uncertainty – is not encouraging; collective confidence is at its lowest level since the pandemic.

In response, Carney’s central message is “it’s time to build,” calling for Canadians to become “maîtres chez nous,” or masters in our own house (a conscious reference to Quebec Liberal Premier Jean Lesage, a key figure of the sixties Quiet Revolution). In policy terms, this means expanding overseas markets to lessen our dependence on the US and invest in large infrastructure projects (including in the resource sector) to create jobs, improve supply chains and attract investment. It also means applying fiscal discipline where necessary within government; Carney will seek to reduce the civil service via attrition and advance bold policy directives for AI to improve service delivery.

With respect to accusations regarding Carney’s financial interests which are now in a blind trust, he has defended his decision to run for public office at a time when Canada needs, now more than ever, safe economic management. In this time of crisis and great consequence for Canada’s future, Carney contends that he’s offering a pragmatic approach to governing. His recent announcements to eliminate the so-called Carbon Tax, the Capital Gains Tax increase and openness to new pipeline infrastructure mark a shift from the Trudeau government’s policies, driven by a combination of political and economic expediency.

Conservative Party of Canada

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has spent the better part of two years effectively prosecuting the case against the Liberals while building a viable alternative to offer the Canadian electorate. While the Conservatives have consistently called for a “Carbon tax election,” Poilievre has shifted his preferred ballot question, asking voters if the Liberals deserve a fourth term after weakening and straining our country to its breaking point, or if it’s time to “put Canada first for a change.”

The Conservatives are well prepared for the launch of the campaign and have begun actively outlining their plan to restore the Canadian promise guided by four familiar pillars – reduce the cost of living, build homes, improve safety, and balance the federal budget. To wrest control of the narrative in the pre-writ period, Poilievre announced key platform commitments including an Arctic sovereignty strategy, axing the industrial carbon tax, speeding up approvals for the Ring of Fire project in Northern Ontario, and establishing “shovel ready zones” to expedite major projects. The initial policy roll-out signals that the Conservatives have primed the pump for a policy rich campaign strategy with a fully baked platform.

On the campaign trail, Poilievre and the Conservatives will be at pains to constantly remind voters that Carney leads the same Liberal caucus that brought Canada successive policy failures – immigration, housing, addictions, violent unrest, debt and deficits – leading to a “lost Liberal decade.” A key challenge for Poilievre will be to strike a communications style that carefully balances his usual pugilistic partisan jabs with a prime ministerial tone to inspire unity and patriotic resolve. The stage has now been set for Poilievre and his party to shed their well-worn oppositional identity and rise to the occasion as a governing party befitting this moment of national crisis.

New Democratic Party

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will seek to present himself as fighting for the little guy, hoping to recapture the left of the political spectrum which has been left wide open by Carney’s move to distance the Liberals from Trudeau’s progressive legacy. The NDP can point to results from the Supply and Confidence Agreement, delivering wins in dental care and the beginning of a national pharmacare plan. This will be the third election for Singh and likely his last chance to win over voters who fear a Poilievre government and have been indicating a willingness to back the Liberals in recent weeks.

Three factors that will shape the federal election 

Trump, Tariffs and Trade
President Donald Trump’s month-long exemption on across-the-board tariffs for products under the CUSMA agreement is set to expire on April 2nd.  If Trump moves forward with these tariffs, sectors like automotives, agriculture, forestry and others will experience significant economic harms leading to possible layoffs. The intensity of the recent period in Canada-US relations will only be magnified by the election, especially if emergency measures are taken by the Liberal caretaker government during the campaign. At the same time, Trump may not be able to help himself from weighing into the Canadian election – and the Liberals will take every opportunity to tie Poilievre to past statements that mirror Trump.

Poilievre and Carney Showdown
Both leaders are contesting their first election at the helm of their parties. Carney has thus far been largely untested by the media and has had little debate experience outside of the recent Liberal leadership, which was a cordial affair. Carney’s political communication skills are a work in progress and will be tested through several televised debates. Poilievre has more experience as a political communicator in both languages, but his brash demeanor may rub voters the wrong way. Expect a spectacle at the debates.

The Progressive and Quebec Nationalist Vote
While several factors have contributed to the Liberals’ polling bump, among them is the consolidation of the progressive vote behind the Liberals, given that the NDP and Bloc are not well positioned to stand up to Trump. At the same time, the backlash against MAGA-style politics means that “anything but Conservative” sentiment has gained momentum, leading to strategic voting by NDP and Bloc Québécois supporters. It remains to be seen if the current low ebb in NDP and Bloc support will hold on election day, but their inability to gain any positive momentum has strengthened the Liberals’ position heading into the first week of the campaign.

Considerations for your business or organization

Elections present significant political risk for many businesses and organizations, especially in sectors that are heavily regulated. Here are some factors to consider now that the election has been officially called:

• Review your advertisements that are currently in market. During a federal election in Canada, companies must ensure that their advertising complies with the Canada Elections Act. Any advertising that could be viewed as partisan or influencing voters should be reviewed. You can find more information on third-party advertising here.
• Consider sending surveys to political parties. Sending political surveys to candidates and political parties during a federal election in Canada helps organizations highlight the issues that matter most to their members and stakeholders. It encourages transparency, informs voters, and fosters accountability by publicly sharing where candidates and parties stand on key policy areas of interest to your company and its workers.
• Organize facility tours for candidates to meet voters or host announcements. While we appreciate that many organizations choose to stay out of elections, local candidates – and even national campaigns – would jump at the opportunity to visit local businesses. Offering a tour to candidates demonstrates how your business or organization is supporting the community and helps to foster local relationships.
• Plan for future government engagement. Even though we won’t know the outcome of the election until late-April, it is common practice for organizations to review their government relations priorities during the election period. Our multipartisan team is ready to help you navigate both continuity and change this spring.