Absence of Green Party Candidates Could Benefit BC NDP in Key Local Races

BC Leader’s Debate Sets the Stage for Election Platforms  

On Wednesday, the three party leaders met on CKNW radio for their first debate in front of BC voters. BC NDP’s David Eby and BC Conservative’s John Rustad presented their key messaging and attacked each other on a variety of points from public safety, gun control, mental health, and Indigenous relations, while BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau tried to find a place to showcase her message to the province. Many times, she joined Eby in cornering Rustad on some of his policies and candidates. 

The NDP and Conservatives released their platforms this morning, following the release of the Green platform on Tuesday.  

Absence of Green Candidates Could Benefit BC New Democrats in Key Local Races  

Months ago, we used to this space to speculate whether the Green Party of BC would be able to field a full slate of candidates given that their nomination process had largely stalled. 

That speculation is now reality. 

When Elections BC released its final list of candidates last week, the Greens were only able to officially nominate 69 out of a possible 93 candidates. This inability to fill a slate has implications for the Greens themselves, for the BC New Democrats and the BC Conservatives as we move closer to election day October 19. 

Even if the Greens had fielded a full slate of candidates, and barring massive growth in support throughout the campaign, they still would have only been competitive in a handful of electoral districts including Saanich North and the Islands, Victoria-Beacon Hill, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, and Kootenay Central. With or without a full slate, these local races are where the Greens will likely devote their resources. 

However, in this election BC Greens seem to be doing things the hard way

In a true head scratcher, Leader Sonia Furstenau is running in a strong BC NDP constituency, Victoria-Beacon Hill, and is facing incumbent cabinet minister Grace Lore, instead of running in Cowichan Valley where she had previously been twice elected. 

Even with boundary changes that moved her home out of her constituency, Furstenau would have been a clear front-runner in Cowichan Valley. 

Instead, she is in a battle for survival and the party’s chances for victory in Cowichan Valley are far from good now that she is not running there.  

Also, if Furstenau had convinced popular incumbent MLA Adam Olsen to seek re-election, the BC Greens would have the luxury of one secure seat. Now that he is not running, that constituency is in play. Conservative David Busch, and New Democrat Sarah Riddell will both challenge BC Green newcomer Rob Botterell.  

Despite these internal challenges, the polls have consistently shown the Greens with about 10 percent of popular support.  

But without candidates in 24 ridings, Counsel will be watching to see in which local races the orphaned Green Party vote will have the greatest impact on the outcome.  

According to Angus Reid’s September 25th poll, 6 in 10 Green Party voters would choose the NDP as their second choice while only 7% would choose John Rustad’s Conservatives.  

BC NDP Could Win Key Local Races with Orphaned Green Party votes

In areas of strong Conservative support, such as Abbotsford South, Abbotsford West, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Delta South, and Surrey South the absence of a Green Party candidate will likely have no impact. Conservatives are front runners here: Green candidate or no Green candidate. 

However, in at least nine seats that the BC NDP need if they want to win re-election, the absence of a BC Green candidate could make the difference for the incumbent governing party.  

Abbotsford-Mission:  This local race is between incumbent BC NDP Agriculture Minister cabinet minister Pam Alexis and Conservative Reann Gasper, a local real estate agent. If this local election is close, orphaned Green vote may be a factor in the outcome. 

Burnaby Centre: Anne Kang, the incumbent Municipal Affairs Minister for the BC NDP, is facing off against professional engineer Dharan Kajal. This local election was always going to be a tough one for the BC Conservatives and the absence of a BC Green candidate makes it harder. 

Burnaby North: Veteran incumbent New Democrat Janet Routledge faces Michael Wu, an entrepreneur and small business owner who was formerly a BC United candidate as well as local resident Martin Kendell who has run previously as an independent in federal and municipal campaigns. The lack of a BC Green presence makes the local math more difficult for Wu. 

Burnaby-New Westminster: Popular incumbent MLA and Speaker Raj Chouhan is being challenged by entrepreneur and broadcaster Deepak Suri, and independent Daniel Kofi Ampong who was formerly the BC United’s nominated candidate. A vote split on the right is more helpful to Chouhan but the absence of a BC Green candidate will not hurt. 

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: Former BC NDP MLA Jodie Wickens is running against Stephen Frolek, a carpenter and member of the Canadian Armed Forces Reserve. Wickens is likely happy that she has no Green candidate in this local race. 

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows: Incumbent Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills Minister Lisa Beare is facing off against Conservative and former one-term Maple Ridge Mayor Mike Morden. This is another constituency where orphaned Green vote could be a factor. 

Richmond-Queensborough: Incumbent MLA and lawyer Aman Singh is no stranger to a close fight to win his seat. He lost in a heart breaker in 2017 to journalist Jas Johal and won in a rematch in 2020. He is facing Conservative Steeve Kooner and independents Cindy Wu and Errol Povah. Singh will likely benefit from the absence of a Green candidate.  

Surrey Panorama: Current incumbent MLA and former NDP MP Jinny Sims is running against RCMP officer Bryan Tepper and Paramjit Rai who is running for the Freedom Party of Canada. Sim will benefit from a split on the right and the absence of a Green candidate. 

North Vancouver-Lonsdale: Incumbent BC NDP cabinet minister Bowinn Ma has long courted the environmental vote so it will be no stretch for her to gain potential Green votes. This will help her in her electoral fight with business executive David Splett. 

Opportunity for the Greens remains in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 

BC United MLA Jordan Sturdy was one of the first to announce that he would not seek re-election in this campaign, giving all parties time to recruit strong candidates for this riding. The NDP have nominated popular municipal leader Jen Ford, who was formerly the president of the UBCM, a councillor for Whistler, and the chair of the Squamish-Lillooet regional district. The BC Conservatives are running one of their strongest and highest-profile candidates, Yuri Fulmer, who is best known for his philanthropic work with the United Way, and for being chancellor of Capilano University in addition to his extensive entrepreneurial experience. The green candidate, Jeremy Valeriote, ran in 2020 and had the closest race of any green party candidate against the incumbent Sturdy.  

This will likely be a tight race in three directions!  

Throughout the campaign, Counsel will be bringing you a slate of campaign updates, news, ridings to watch, and opinion polling to keep you up to date on the election. Our multipartisan team will be tuned in to provide analysis on how this race will impact future governance, public policy, and the lives of British Columbians.