Damage Control Cabinet: Trudeau’s Year-End Shuffle Seeks Stability for a Government Rocked by Freeland’s Departure

Questions regarding Trudeau’s future as Prime Minister persist as NDP announce plans to move non-confidence motion when House returns

Following one of the most politically explosive weeks in recent Canadian history, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering his political future, including if he should resign and what a Liberal leadership race could look like.  This comes after his cabinet shuffle planned for Tuesday blew up – which would have reportedly made Mark Carney the new Finance Minister – when his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister resigned on Monday via a public letter that harshly criticized the Prime Minister’s leadership and rocked the embattled Liberal government.  

To add fuel to this fire, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced his intention to move non-confidence in the government when Parliament returns – almost certainly setting the stage for a spring election that would likely hand power to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. 

While questions regarding his leadership continues to swirl, the Prime Minister is still faced with the need to plug key holes in his cabinet, given the attrition in cabinet ministers announcing their departure from government throughout the fall that left many of the remaining ministers double- or triple-hatted on a temporary basis.  Today’s shuffle redistributes those roles by drawing in several backbenchers who will run in the next election.  Notably, the shuffle leaves key ministers (and potential leadership contenders) like Anand, Champagne, Joly and Wilkinson in place – in addition to new Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc, who was sworn in on Monday.   

Who’s moving?  

Anita Anand (Minister of Transport and Internal Trade) – Anand was sworn in as Minister of Transport in September, taking on the position from Pablo Rodriguez. Anand has dropped the Treasury Board President position and is rumoured to be interested in the Liberal leadership. 

Gary Anandasangaree (Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs and Minister responsible for the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency) – Anandsangaree will be tasked with an expanded portfolio at a time when Indigenous relations are challenging due to annuity payments, Jordan’s Principle (child welfare) payments, and enduring concerns about economic reconciliation. Recently, Anandsangaree travelled around the country delivering formal statements of recognition and apologies on behalf of the Government of Canada.  

Steven MacKinnon (Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour) – Despite being appointed to cabinet recently as Minister of Labour, MacKinnon will have an expanded responsibility including the employment portfolio. His recent intervention in several high-profile strikes have created doubts about the government’s support for unions and their right to bargain, in the face of mounting public impatience with labour disruptions.  

Ginette Petitpas Taylor (President of the Treasury Board) – First elected in 2015, Taylor will be transitioning to a new portfolio after doing double duty covering off Randy Boissonnault’s former ministry. Taylor will be tasked with finalizing regulations, implementing approved spending plans and reallocating unspent funds towards government priorities.    

Who’s in?  

Nate Erskine-Smith (Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities) – Erskine–Smith will be tasked with one of the most challenging files for the Liberals, but he comes prepared with strong communication skills and encyclopedic knowledge of policy. Erskine-Smith has built a large social media following and will likely emerge as one of the highest profile members of this cabinet, even if it is short-lived.  

David McGuinty (Minister of Public Safety) – The Ottawa South MP and Chair of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) will be taking over the vital Public Safety file from Dominic Leblanc. McGuinty will be tasked with handling the release of the Foreign Interference Inquiry final report. However, Dominic Leblanc will reportedly retain control of the Canada-US border file.  

Rachel Bendayan (Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety) – Previously the Parliamentary Secretary to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Bendayan brings strong stakeholder engagement and knowledge from various portfolios to cabinet, with a focus on Quebec. Under her Public Safety role, she will oversee regulations for the government’s new firearms legislation.  

Terry Duguid (Minister of Sport and Minister responsible for Prairies Economic Development Canada) – First elected in 2015 in Winnipeg South, Duguid has worked in various portfolios as a parliamentary secretary and brings a deep knowledge of the Prairies to the economic development file. He is also considered a pragmatic, talented consensus builder in caucus with decades of institutional memory with the party. 

Élisabeth Brière (Minister of National Revenue) – Previously the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Families, Children, and Social Development and to the Minister of Mental Health and Addictions, Brière is another Quebec voice at the cabinet table who will be responsible for the Canada Revenue Agency. 

Darren Fisher (Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence) – With Fraser’s departure from cabinet, Fisher will need to be a strong voice for Nova Scotia as he takes on a major ministry. Fisher is not a stranger to national security matters, as he is a member of the NSICOP committee.  

Ruby Sahota (Minister of Democratic Institutions and Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario) – Sahota will be taking on the Democratic Institutions file from LeBlanc and will likely leverage her experience as Chief Government Whip to advance the safety of Canada’s elections and help deliver the Foreign Interference Inquiry final report.  

Joanne Thompson (Minister of Seniors) – Thompson will join Fisher as another voice from Eastern Canada, a region that the Liberals are in danger of losing to the Conservatives. Her familiarity with this file as Chair of the National Seniors Caucus will temper her newness to cabinet.  

Who’s out? 

Chrystia Freeland (formerly Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance) – After an explosive letter released publicly denouncing the Prime Minister, Freeland is no longer in cabinet but remains in the Liberal caucus and will likely stand for the Liberal Leadership.   

Sean Fraser (formerly Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities) – One of the Liberals’ strongest communicators, Fraser announced he would not seek re-election and is rumoured to be interested in the Nova Scotia Liberal Leadership.  

Seamus O’Regan (formerly Minister of Labour and Seniors) – O’Regan announced his resignation from cabinet in July, citing his need to support his family having been elected in 2015. 

Randy Boissonnault (formerly Minister of Employment and Workforce Development) –Boissonnault was removed from Cabinet in November following a scandal surrounding his business dealings and allegations that he claimed Indigenous heritage despite not being Indigenous himself. Boissonnault’s departure leaves Alberta without a seat at the cabinet table. 

Pablo Rodriguez (formally Minister of Transport and Quebec Lieutenant)- In September, Rodriguez announced that he would sit as an Independent while seeking the Quebec Liberal Leadership. 

Carla Qualtrough (formerly Minister of Sport) – Qualtrough announced her intention to not run for a fourth term as South Delta’s MP, having championed disability advocacy during her tenure with the LPC.  

Dan Vandal (formerly Minister of Northern Affairs) – In October, Vandal cited his 26 years of public service as the reason why he would not be running in the next election.  

Filomena Tassi (formerly Minister for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario) – Citing family reasons, the three term MP announced she would not be running again but the Prime Minister still has her full support.  

NDP Announce Plan to Move Non-Confidence 

Jagmeet Singh, the Leader of the NDP, who continues to hold the balance of power in the House of Commons, released a video and letter today announcing plans to move a vote of non-confidence in parliament at the next opportunity.  This all but assures a spring election, although the Liberals may choose to prorogue parliament to delay the timing of that vote until after a new Liberal Leader is in place. Singh’s announcement comes at a moment of maximum vulnerability for the Prime Minister and the NDP are aiming to collect disaffected Liberal voters. Should the Liberals choose to prorogue to delay the inevitable, they may wish to wait for as long as possible, right before parliament is scheduled to return in late January.  This would leave them with the option to recall parliament on an emergency basis in the face of Trump’s threatened economy-wide tariffs.

Liberal Leadership Considerations 

The fact that potential leadership contenders Anand, Joly, Champagne, Wilkinson, and Leblanc remain in cabinet indicates that a long Liberal leadership race is not imminently planned – as they would presumably need to resign to focus on that race. Furthermore, the departure of these ministers (and their staff) would further undermine the stability of the government at a critical moment.  

With a minority government, a federal election now likely in Spring 2025, and the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20 under the threat of a trade war – the calendar leaves the Liberals with limited options to change their leader. 

Selection of a new Prime Minister by the government caucus is an option that addresses many of these problems. While not part of the Canadian political tradition, it is more common in the United Kingdom which shares our Westminster system of government. It would also allow for a swift transition for Trudeau who would be vulnerable to a snap election and further weakened in his “lame duck” status when engaging with the Trump administration. Whether a new leader will reverse the dizzying trajectory of plummeting support for the Liberals in the polls is questionable. 

Expect further developments over the coming weeks. Counsel’s multi-partisan team will ensure that you have the insights you need to make sense of the shifting political dynamics and what it means for your priorities.