Ford Government Pre-Election Priorities Revealed in Ontario’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement

Analysis and Overview of Ontario’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement 

Amidst anticipation of a potential spring 2025 provincial election, today Ontario’s Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy released the province’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement (FES). The statement and accompanying legislation, Building Ontario For You Act, 2024, are an unmistakeable signal to Ontario voters about this government’s priorities – both in the immediate term and during an election, should they decide to go to the polls early.  

Conventionally, a mid-mandate FES is an unremarkable announcement, with relatively few new items and an update on the government’s projects. It’s an opportunity to celebrate accomplishments, and signal future direction, but they typically lack in high-profile new policy. Today’s FES was different.   

The build-up to the 2024 FES took on an outsized strategic importance because of the compressed legislative session, which seems intended to help make the case for an early election. Over the past two weeks, the Ontario Government has made a flurry of major announcements meant to define their priorities and contrast (or wedge) itself with the opposition parties. Today’s FES pulls together these various threads and puts into focus the elements of what could become an election platform.   

The foundation is the Ford government’s contention – despite disagreement from the opposition and its critics – that the provincial government is maintaining a “responsible and targeted approach” to fiscal management with no budget cuts, no tax increases (in fact, modest tax decreases) and a projected path to balance. In reality, the FES reveals that the province has benefited from higher than anticipated revenues – mostly higher sales tax revenue directly linked to higher inflation, and higher-than-anticipated corporate tax revenue as investors got out ahead of the changes to the federal capital gains tax. These increased revenues gave the Finance Minister some fiscal room to implement politically advantageous policies and programs in key areas (infrastructure, industrial development, skills development, health care) and to provide a real cash return to Ontarians (more on that below).   

The 2024 FES amplifies key themes that have come to define the Ford government’s identity: “getting it done” on building infrastructure; investing in a next-generation manufacturing and resource economy for economic growth; addressing issues like gridlock; and mitigating cost of living pressures with tax cuts and rebates.  

There is also a greater emphasis on public safety and law and order – an easy wedge between the Ford government and the waning Trudeau government in Ottawa.  

Fiscal and Economic Top Line

• The province’s fiscal outlook has improved from the 2024 Budget in March and 2024-25 First Quarter Finances released in August 2024. The reduced costs of borrowing have resulted in a more positive outlook on both the expense and revenue side of the income statement.  Real GDP growth: 0.9% in 2024, down from 1.4% in 2023, but expected to grow to 1.7 % by 2025 (In comparison to other provinces, 0.9% growth is solid – Quebec, for example is growing at 0.7% – but in comparison to the U.S., Ontario’s largest trading partner, their growth was a robust 2.8% in the 3rd quarter). 

• Total Revenue: $212.6 billion, an increase of $690 million from the 2024 Budget, mostly because of higher-than-anticipated sales tax revenue of more than $1.1 billion.  

• Total Expenditure: $218.3 billion.  

• Deficit: $6.6 billion in 2024-25 – consistent with the 2024 Ontario Budget – and expected to decline to $1.5 billion in 2025-26, before a projected surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026-27.  

• Debt Numbers: 
• Net debt-to-GDP ratio: 37.8% in 2024-25 (down from 39.2% in Budget 2024)
• Net debt-to-revenue ratio: 202% in 2024-25 (down from 214% in Budget 2024) 

• Employment Numbers: A 6.9% increase in unemployment in September 2024. Ontario added almost 200,000 jobs to the market since the end of 2023; however, higher unemployment can be attributed a larger labour force, spurred by increases in population growth. The unemployment rate is still slightly below the historical average.  

• Housing Starts Projection: a projected 81,300 housing starts in 2024 – down from 89,300 in 2023 and the 87,900 projected in the spring budget. These are forecast to increase in 2025 onwards – but still well below the annual numbers required for the Ontario Government to achieve its decade-long 1.5 million new homes target set in 2021.    

Major Commitments 

In the weeks leading up to the return of the House, the government unveiled a series of measures and investments to support the narrative of an administration that is attuned to Ontarians’ most pressing concern – affordability – and to act as a prelude to the full suite of initiatives announced in today’s FES.  

These previously announced investments include:  

• A $200 tax rebate for every eligible Ontario taxpayer (including $200 for eligible children), citing a need for financial relief owing to high interest rates and the federal carbon tax; 

• An extension to the pause on the provincial portion of gas and fuel taxes, first introduced in 2022, now set to expire at the end of June 2025;  

• An investment of $88 million over three years starting in 2026 in the Learn and Stay Grant for medical school students, and a requirement for undergraduate medical schools to allocate 95 per cent of seats to Ontario residents; 

• Support for families seeking fertility treatment – $150 million over two years to reduce the Ontario Fertility Program waitlist; and a 25 per cent tax credit for eligible fertility treatment expenses, up to a maximum of $5,000 per year. 

• Funding for Ontario’s Life Sciences Strategy – $146 million for its second phase in an effort to cement the province’s stake in the biomanufacturing sector; and 

• Continued funding for the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit. 

All-new investments announced today in priority areas include:  

Manufacturing & Labour 

• An additional $100 million for the Invest Ontario Fund. This builds on the $100 million announced in the 2024 Budget and brings the fund total to $700 million. This fund gives the Premier and Minister of Economic Development the firepower they need to attract strategic investment to Ontario in the automotive, advanced manufacturing and life-sciences sectors. 

• Starting in 2025-26, Ontario will invest up to $4 million over two years to support Project Arrow 2.0, which will establish a special purpose production facility to help the automotive industry test innovations and train skilled talent to develop the first all‐Canadian, zero‐emission connected vehicle, designed and built in Ontario. 

• An investment in the Scientists in Schools program to encourage greater uptake of STEM-careers, to the tune of $750,000 over three years.  

Public Safety  

• No new spending announced in FES for public safety, but an explicit signal that the Ontario government is going to continue to push its position on calling for changes to bail reform from the federal government.  

• Over the weekend, the Ontario Government issued a release outlining a series of criminal justice and public safety reforms that it would be pursuing with the Federal government, attempting to squarely contrast itself on the issue and setting a market for future federal action should a change in government in Ottawa occur. 

• In response, the Federal government sent accused the province of under-investing in jails and courts. The province responded that it was already investing in new jails, including a $1 billion facility in Thunder Bay, and alluded to more announcements to come. As Doug Ford said in March: “I’ll build as many jails as we need to put these criminals behind bars for a long time.”  

Infrastructure 

• A $100 million increase in the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund, in response to local governments’ pleas for more support particularly in small, northern and rural communities; 

• Building Ontario Fund (BOF): the Ontario Infrastructure Bank announced in the 2023 FES has remained quiet, but the government provided an update that the BOF has a robust pipeline of outcome‐focused projects in priority areas of energy, affordable housing, long‐term care, municipal and Indigenous community infrastructure, and transportation. Near‐term investment opportunities include affordable student housing, energy, and long‐term care projects.   

Health & Social Services 

• $13 million to establish a provincial ALS program, to expand regional services into Northern Ontario; 

• Investments of an additional $17 million (building on an annual $15 million investment) in Seniors Active Living Centres to improve quality of life and community cohesion;  

• $7.7 million for the Frankfort Family Reena Residence, providing supportive housing for people with disabilities.  

Other Notable Items 

As part of its efforts to position Ontario as an attractive destination for investment, the government noted it would explore requirements for private corporations to share information on their beneficial owners to a registry. This transparency measure would ward off practices often associated with money laundering and organized crime.  

With respect to auto insurance, we should expect additional measures that introduce greater efficiencies in the system. In addition to the government’s measures to make auto insurance pay for accident injuries before extended health plans, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) is in the midst of consulting on three frameworks related to auto insurance pieces – part of their Budget 2024 commitment to modernize the system.  

Analysis 

What does this mean for you?  

Fall Economic Statements, like Budgets and Throne Speeches, always set out to do two things:  They set the political/communication narrative for a government and they signal the legislative agenda.  On that score, this FES affirms the direction of this government and signals that it is comfortable with the narrative it has set: “Only Doug Ford can get it done.” As a communications vehicle, the FES continues the effort to position Ford as bold by reminding voters of proposals like tunnelling under Highway 401 to fight gridlock; highlighting major infrastructure initiatives like Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass, and 50 new hospital projects; and as a fighter for the little guy with a sprinkling of the “For the People” populism that led to their first victory in 2018. Perhaps the most high-profile – and controversial – example of this is the forthcoming $200 rebate cheques for Ontario taxpayers (at a cost of $3.3 billion, in lieu of deficit relief or increased public investment) and a continued gas tax holiday – both intended to provide pocketbook relief to help address the affordability crunch felt by many Ontarians.  

The Opposition will point to shortcomings in this plan: more could be done to address growing wait times and staffing challenges in health care; public education infrastructure is facing a mounting infrastructure renewal cliff; Ontario’s post-secondary sector continues to face significant financial shortfalls; and Ontario’s child welfare system remains chronically under-funded.  Notwithstanding these criticisms, Ford believes he has his finger on the pulse of Ontario voters, and that they want to see Ontario’s government focused on building economically strategic infrastructure and making life more affordable.   

What does this mean for Counsel’s clients? 

If there was any question before today that Ontario is officially in a pre-election period, those doubts are now erased.  Even if Ford decides to back off and not call an early election in 2025, his government will remain in pre-election mode and every policy, communication, and action will be interpreted through a highly specific lens: will this earn – or protect – the votes we need?  To be successful, our clients must match that intensity and focus.   

Identifying MPPs and would-be MPPs who are sympathetic to what you are trying to achieve, and willing to drive those conversations within their party caucus, can be a powerful catalyst. Efforts to effectively activate grassroots supporters will be even more important in the coming months.  If you have a message, a new idea or initiative for government – whatever you have to say, say it fast; say it with a punchy message that lands quickly. Moreover, say it loudly over the din of all the other voices clamouring for attention. At Counsel, we’re experienced in getting your message heard by the right ears by cutting through the clutter.    

If you’re interested in learning more about effective grassroots and pre-election engagement, contact Counsel’s Ontario team: